Compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, global trade volumes rose by around $250 million, mostly driven by higher commodity prices, as overall trade volumes did not grow by much, UNCTAD said.
UNCTAD noted that while global trade is still expected to grow, in the second quarter of 2022, the pace will continue to slow.
Factors Affecting Global Trade
"The Ukrainian war is starting to affect international trade, mainly due to higher prices," the report said.
The report noted that rising interest rates and the scaling back of stimulus packages could negatively impact trade volumes for the remainder of 2022.
In addition, volatility in commodity prices and geopolitical factors will continue to make trade developments uncertain.
Developed and developing countries
The report shows that trade growth in the first quarter of 2022 remained strong across all geographic regions, although there was a decline in East Asia and the Pacific. With commodity prices rising, export growth in commodity-exporting regions is generally stronger.
According to the report, merchandise trade reached about $6.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of about 25% compared to the first quarter of 2021 and an increase of about 3.6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.
According to the report, the value of merchandise exports from developing countries in the first quarter of 2022 was about 25% higher than in the same period last year, compared with about 14% for developed countries.
Merchandise trade between developing countries also saw strong growth in the first quarter of 2022, the report highlighted. Trade in services grew to about $1.6 trillion, an increase of about 22% compared to the first quarter of 2021 and an increase of about 1.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.
Significant growth across sectors
In the first quarter of 2022, the volume of trade in most sectors of the economy increased significantly year-on-year, the report showed.
The report pointed to high fuel prices as the reason for the strong growth in trade in the energy sector. Trade growth in metals and chemicals was also above average. In contrast, trade in the transport sector and communications equipment remains below 2021 and 2019 levels.
Ukraine war dims prospects
The development of world trade over the remainder of 2022 could be hampered by lower-than-expected economic growth due to rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and concerns over debt sustainability in many economies, the report said.
The report pointed out that the war in Ukraine caused further upward pressure on international energy and primary commodity prices, thus affecting international trade.
In the short term, higher food and energy prices may lead to higher trade values and slightly lower trade volumes due to inelastic global demand for food and energy products.
Other factors expected to affect global trade this year include ongoing challenges to global supply chains, factory manufacturing, regionalization trends, and policies to support the transition to a greener global economy.
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